Alberto Giubilini, Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics and WEH, University of Oxford
Erica Charters, Faculty of History and WEH, University of Oxford
A discussion on the end of the COVID-19 pandemic is overdue. We keep hearing that ‘we are in the middle of a pandemic’. However, it is not clear what it means to be in the middle of a pandemic if we don’t know what it means for a pandemic to end. How can we know what the middle is if we don’t know what the end is?
We were given a clear date by the WHO for the start of the pandemic (11 March 2020). A few days earlier the WHO Director-General had for the first time used the term ‘epidemic’ to refer to COVID-19 outbreaks in some countries (5 March 2020). A disease is categorized as an epidemic when it spreads rapidly, with higher rates than normal, in a certain geographical area. A pandemic is an epidemic spreading over more than one continent. Thus, declaring epidemic and pandemic status is a decision based on epidemiological criteria.
By contrast, the end of an epidemic is not determined by epidemiological factors alone. Historically, epidemics end not with the end of the disease, but with the disease becoming endemic – that is, accepted and acceptable as part of normal life.
However, when and how a disease becomes normal or acceptable is primarily a social, cultural, political, and ethical phenomenon, rather than scientific or epidemiological. It is a more subtle phenomenon – and less precise – than the start of the epidemic. The end depends on how a society decides to respond to a pathogen that keeps circulating. We might well find ourselves out of this pandemic without realising when and how it happened.
So, when will this pandemic end?
Read More »The end of the COVID-19 pandemic